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The verdict bar shows the engine's output: expected return, fair value, probability of profit, VaR, and risk score. Fair value comes from the stochastic DCF (equities) or alternative models (crypto/forex).

Price targets show bear (P10), base (P50), and bull (P90) cases from the Monte Carlo distribution — these are the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of 5,000 simulated outcomes.

Leading indicators and cause-effect chains come from the sector template and help frame qualitative risk factors.

Five risk categories scored on likelihood (1-5) × impact (1-5). The product is the category score (max 25). The composite is the average across all categories.

Scores are auto-calculated when you run the engine — based on volatility, beta, financial ratios, sector factors, and regression results. You can override any score manually.

Sector factors listed under each category come from the GICS template and highlight what's most relevant for this stock's industry.

For crypto: categories are volatility, liquidity, protocol, regulatory, and concentration. For forex: fx_volatility, fx_liquidity, macro_divergence, central_bank, and geopolitical.

Monte Carlo simulates 5,000 price paths using the stock's historical return and volatility. Equities use Geometric Brownian Motion, crypto uses Student-t (fat tails), forex uses Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (mean-reverting).

Fan chart shows the probability cone — how uncertainty expands over your chosen horizon. Darker bands = more likely outcomes.

DCF (equities only) runs a stochastic discounted cash flow with 3,000 simulations. The model is sector-routed: corporate FCF for most stocks, bank DDM for financials, utility DDM, REIT NAV.

VaR/CVaR shows your worst-case daily loss at the 95% confidence level. CVaR is the average loss beyond VaR — the "average bad day."

Click the info icon on any chart for a detailed explanation of what you're seeing and how to interpret it.

The chart workspace uses TradingView Lightweight Charts. Switch between candlestick, line, area, and bar views. Timeframes from 1 month to max available history.

Overlays: SMA (20/50/200), EMA (12/26), Bollinger Bands — all computed client-side from the price data. Toggle them on/off with the buttons above the chart.

Sub-panels: Volume (always useful), RSI (overbought >70, oversold <30), MACD (signal crossovers). RSI and MACD are fetched from FMP's technical indicator API.

News and analyst/insider panels load data from FMP. If they show "Loading..." the API may be rate-limited or the stock may not have coverage.

Stress tests apply predefined macroeconomic shocks from the sector template — each with a severity level and historical parallel (e.g., "2020 COVID crash").

Shocks are applied through the factor regression: if the regression shows your stock has 1.2 beta to SPY, a -20% SPY shock implies ~-24% impact on your stock.

Scenario trees show branching probability-weighted outcomes. They combine multiple stress scenarios with their conditional probabilities.

OLS regression decomposes your stock's returns against macro factors: market (SPY), rates (DGS10), USD (DXY), sector ETF, and more. Factors come from FRED and FMP.

R² = how much of the stock's movement is explained by these factors. Higher = more systematic risk, lower = more idiosyncratic.

Alpha = the return not explained by factors — the stock's "edge" (positive) or "drag" (negative).

The tornado chart shows sensitivity — which factor moves your stock the most, and in which direction.

Shares vs Weight mode: toggle between entering portfolio weights (% allocation) or actual share counts. Share mode calculates dollar values and P&L automatically.

Correlation matrix shows how your holdings move together. High correlation = less diversification benefit. The heatmap uses red (high) to blue (low).

Efficient frontier plots 500 random portfolio weightings. The curve shows the maximum return achievable at each volatility level. Your portfolio is marked with a dot.

Stress tests apply the same macro shocks as individual analysis, but across the whole portfolio — accounting for correlations between holdings.

Diversification ratio > 1.0 means your portfolio is more diversified than its individual holdings would suggest. Higher is better.

Select a holding using the ticker buttons to load its chart in the workspace. You can compare holdings by switching between them.

The news feed aggregates news across all your holdings, sorted by date — newest first.

Income dashboard shows your projected annual dividend income based on current share counts and latest dividend rates.

Yield on cost is your dividend income divided by your total cost basis — different from current yield which uses market price.

The monthly timeline shows when you'll receive payments throughout the year based on historical payment schedules.

The capture strategy: buy a stock 2-3 days before its ex-dividend date, collect the dividend, then evaluate whether to sell based on the stock's recovery behaviour.

Calendar universes filter which stocks you see: S&P 500 (all), Blue chips ($100B+), High yield (3%+), Aristocrats (25yr+ streak), or by sector.

Click a day to see capture cards for each stock going ex-dividend. Each card shows four signals:

Drop vs dividend: historically, does the stock drop more or less than the dividend on ex-date? Green = avg drop is less than dividend (positive net capture).

Recovery rate: what % of the time the stock recovers to pre-ex-date price within 5 trading days. 75%+ is good.

Mean reversion: is the stock oversold (good — natural bounce helps) or overbought (bad — ex-date drop accelerates correction)?

Seasonality: is this historically a good or bad month for this stock?

The score ring (0-100) combines all four signals. Green (70+) = good capture setup, amber (45-69) = neutral, red (<45) = caution.

Presets are pre-configured filter combinations: Mega Cap Tech, Dividend Payers, Small Cap Value, Low Beta Defensive, etc. Click one to apply its filters instantly.

Beta measures how much a stock moves relative to the market. Beta > 1 = more volatile than the market, Beta < 1 = less volatile. Low-beta stocks are more defensive.

Market cap tiers: Nano (<$300M), Micro ($300M-$2B), Small ($2B-$10B), Mid ($10B-$50B), Large ($50B-$200B), Mega ($200B+).

Click any result to go to its full analysis page.

Toggle between Stocks, Crypto, and Forex to search different asset classes. Each uses the FMP search API filtered by exchange type.

Crypto tickers use USD pairs: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD. The quick-access buttons show common symbols.

Forex tickers are currency pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. Major pairs are shown as quick-access buttons.

Data comes from FMP (Financial Modeling Prep). Prices are cached and refreshed on page load — typically within 18 hours of the last market close.

Your portfolios show the latest computed metrics (return, VaR, diversification) if you've run portfolio analysis. Click a portfolio to manage holdings and view detailed analysis.

Saved analyses show your most recent stock analyses with fair value and expected return. Click to reopen and re-run.

Use quick search to jump directly to any ticker's analysis page.

Market Risk is a multi-asset research platform by 132 Engineering (Canada). It runs 18 analytical methods across equities, crypto, and forex using data from FMP and FRED.

This is not financial advice. Models are simplifications of reality. Use these tools to inform your thinking, not replace it. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data freshness: stock profiles refresh every 7 days, prices every 18 hours, financials every 7 days. Quotes refresh on every page load.